Know Your Probabilities

The journey of a poker newbie continues. Let me explain my academic background, because it plays a role in how I approach this game/sport (haven’t decided on that one yet). I’ve some training and university-level experience with probabilities and game theory that I gathered from my advanced economics classes.

I subscribe to the know-your-probabilities school of thought; knowing realistic probabilities of this or that occurrence really helps in making better decisions in life. It’s very simple, in fact! People tend to freak out a lot, get enmeshed in fears of a pandemic (hello swine and avian flu), and take stupid risks when their chances are very, very slim (drinking and driving?).

All it takes is some math probabilities knowledge, and a dip in combinatorics. Learn-Texas-HoldEm.com web has a pretty good step-by-step guide, if you want to polish your skills or learn a little.

I’ve watched a couple of poker tournaments on television, when channel-surfing on a random Saturday afternoon. My favorite part about televised tournaments is not the stern faces of sunglasses-wearing, thousand-dollar-betting poker stars, but watching their (betting) behavior once they get their first two cards and probabilities of winning the pot pop up.

Many professional poker players say they play by “feel”, but I seriously doubt that. If you don’t have strong grounding in mathematics, it can get tough to make a decision in a difficult situation.

Of course, it’s not all odds. And seriously, if you know the odds of every possible hand in poker, and can swiftly calculate them in your head based on what cards get dealt, I’d be surprised… and a little freaked out. (Unless you’re Rain Man, of course J) That’s when the psychological element of poker starts being interesting. Working with the cards you’ve got, and your probabilities of winning, you decide to intimidate opponents psychologically, or rightfully risk and beguile with aptitude, or plainly bluff with garbage of a hand.

As long as you have the grounding and mathematical foundation, the rest is up to you. You’re prepared, now work your emotional intelligence magic!

Tags: mathetmatics newbie odds poker Strategy